Without continuous investment in these fields, the world would lose the equivalent of the combined oil production of Brazil and Norway from the global supply balance each year. Photo: IEA Media Gallery.
Guacamaya, September 17, 2025. A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) issues a stark warning: global oil and gas production is critically dependent on permanent investments to avoid an accelerated collapse. According to the study, without new capital injections into existing fields, the supply of crude oil would fall by an average of 8% annually over the next decade—about 5.5 million fewer barrels per day each year—while natural gas would recede by 9%, equivalent to the entire current production of Africa. Without continuous investment in these fields, the world would lose, each year, the equivalent of the combined production of Brazil and Norway from the global oil balance.
The analysis points out that the debate on the future of energy has been too focused on the evolution of demand, overlooking a key aspect: the progressive depletion of fields. The data is clear: nearly 90% of the annual investment in exploration and production since 2019 has been allocated solely to offsetting the natural decline of fields, and not to responding to consumption growth. In 2025, global upstream investment is estimated at $570 billion, a figure sufficient to sustain modest production growth but leaving little room for error: a slight reduction in capital could be the difference between expansion and stagnation.
The current landscape shows a structural shift: in the year 2000, conventional fields accounted for 97% of global crude production; by 2024, that proportion had fallen to 77% due to the rise of unconventional resources, such as shale and tight oil. However, global production still relies on a handful of supergiant fields located in the Middle East, Eurasia, and North America, which are responsible for nearly half of the planet’s oil and gas.
Decline rates vary by field type: supergiants decline at an annual rate of just 2.7%, while small fields exceed 11%. Onshore fields decrease by around 4.2% per year, compared to 10.3% for deepwater fields. The Middle East exhibits the lowest decline rate (1.8%), thanks to its vast onshore fields, while Europe records the highest (9.7%) due to its reliance on offshore fields.
The report underscores that unconventional resources are the most vulnerable: if investment in shale and tight oil were interrupted, production would fall by more than 35% in a single year, and another 15% the following year. This dynamic makes the United States a more fragile actor in the face of decline, while countries with conventional supergiants, such as Saudi Arabia or Russia, have a more stable cushion. In fact, the IEA estimates that without new investments, advanced economies would suffer a 65% drop in their production within ten years, compared to 45% in the Middle East and Russia.
To maintain current production until 2050, the world would need to incorporate more than 45 million additional barrels per day from new conventional fields and about 2,000 bcm of natural gas. The agency calculates that there are 230 billion barrels of oil and 40 trillion cubic meters of gas already discovered but not yet approved for development, concentrated in the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa. However, developing these resources requires long lead times: on average, nearly 20 years from the granting of a license to the start of production, which poses a challenge given the urgency of the energy transition.
What Implications Does the Report’s Findings Have for Venezuela?
The IEA’s warning resonates strongly in Venezuela. Despite having the Orinoco Oil Belt, one of the largest deposits of extra-heavy crude in the world, the country faces a critical situation: years of declining production, cases of corruption admitted by the government, aging infrastructure, a lack of national investment, and a limited flow of international investment due to sanctions and financial isolation. In a context where most global fields are already in natural decline, the lack of capital and technology exacerbates the erosion of Venezuela’s productive platform. This not only limits fiscal revenues and export capacity but also threatens to marginalize the country from the benefits that could arise from potential cycles of high crude prices.
In conclusion, the IEA reminds us that the energy future depends not only on the evolution of consumption but also on the ability to sustain supply in the face of the natural depletion of wells. A global challenge that, in Venezuela’s case, is intertwined with the urgency of resolving a severe, complex, and costly political and financial conflict to prevent its vast reserves from ending up as a stranded resource trapped underground amid an international isolation that has been prolonged for years.
