Escalation in the Persian Gulf reshapes the energy map: A window of opportunity for Venezuelan crude?

The recent escalation of tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran threatens not only the geopolitical stability of the Middle East but also global energy markets. While oil prices have surged and maritime insurers have restricted war-risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, experts warn about the fragility of the Iranian regime and the possible scenarios following the departure of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In this context, Venezuela emerges as a strategic actor capable of influencing global crude supply, in the event of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Trump proclaims Venezuela a“new friend and partner” under Delcy Rodríguez as Enrique Márquez visits the White House

He stressed that Washington is working “very closely” with interim president Delcy Rodríguez to unlock “extraordinary economic benefits for both countries” and to bring “new hope to those who have suffered so terribly.” Central to that renewed relationship, Trump underscored, is energy cooperation. He announced that more than 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude had recently entered the U.S. market. One of the most unexpected moments of the address came when Enrique Márquez—former presidential candidate and leader of the Centrados party—was introduced in the chamber. Márquez had spent a year imprisoned at El Helicoide, headquarters of Venezuela’s intelligence service. Trump invited him to stand and celebrate his freedom, as cameras captured an emotional embrace with his niece.

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Which actors are shaping the configuration of Venezuela’s oil market in recent weeks?

Venezuela’s oil industry is undergoing a period of reconfiguration marked by a partial increase in domestic refining, new U.S. licenses that are energizing exports and gas projects, the return of supertankers to its terminals, expectations of foreign investment, India’s presence in light of the agreement with the United States, challenges stemming from past debts, the IMF’s interest, and prospects for economic reactivation in the country’s oil-producing regions.

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Venezuela reopens the oil tap: Repsol to receive crude as Shell advances gas plans and ConocoPhillips keeps its distance

Two million barrels of Venezuelan oil will be shipped to the Spanish oil company Repsol, according to export schedules released this week. This is the first significant shipment destined for Spain. Meanwhile, Shell says it expects to produce gas from the Dragón field, located in Venezuelan waters, within approximately three years, with processing in Trinidad and Tobago for subsequent export. The American oil company ConocoPhillips, however, has made it clear that it is not considering any return to operations in Venezuela

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Which refineries have shown interest in and purchased Venezuelan oil after the geopolitical shift?

U.S. refineries and major international buyers, including Indian companies and global trading houses, have resumed purchases of Venezuelan crude following the easing of sanctions and new energy agreements driven by Washington and Caracas. The reopening of oil flows is already beginning to be reflected in refining margins and in Venezuela’s repositioning in the global market.

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