The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimated growth of 6.5% in 2024 and projects a GDP decline of 1.3% for 2025. Photo: Official UNDP logo.
Guacamaya, April 25, 2025. The report published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) states that Venezuela ended 2024 with growth driven by oil expansion, but the country faces an uncertain 2025 following the withdrawal of Chevron’s and other oil companies’ licenses.
According to the latest economic report by the UNDP, Venezuela recorded GDP growth of 6.5% in 2024, a result of a significant rebound in oil production accompanied by increased domestic consumption.
However, the Venezuelan economy is heading toward a negative and uncertain 2025, with a forecasted contraction of 1.5%. It will be marked by the return of inflation, the potential halt in foreign investment, and a likely decline in oil production due to the recent revocation of special licenses for Chevron, Repsol, Maurel & Prom, and other companies that had U.S. authorization to operate in the country.
The report also highlights the growing reliance on informal entrepreneurship, which represents the primary income source for 58% of households, while the minimum comprehensive wage barely covers 5.8% of the basic food basket. Despite some salary increases in the private sector, structural gaps persist.
Nevertheless, the report draws attention to serious challenges for 2025, linked to the instability caused by the Trump administration’s actions regarding Venezuelan oil. Particularly concerning is the reimposition of sanctions and the suspension of operating licenses for U.S. company Chevron and other oil firms, which could only continue operations under such authorization. The most direct consequence is that production will likely drop to 848,000 barrels per day. Coupled with reduced domestic consumption and declining purchasing power due to cuts in fiscal revenues and GDP, inflation could skyrocket to 175%, reversing the improvements achieved in 2024.
Therefore, Venezuela’s economic performance in 2025 will largely depend on its oil industry’s adaptability, the timeline for Chevron’s exit, the implementation of coherent macroeconomic policies, the political situation, and international reintegration—which still seems distant due to recent measures by the Trump administration.
The outlook for Venezuela appears to revive old ghosts from the past, with high inflation potentially leading to economic instability and an uncertain future for the country’s population amid political tensions.
