The shortage of official foreign currency has directly impacted prices and the purchasing power of Venezuelans. Photo: Archive
Guacamaya, May 28, 2025. The escalation of the exchange rate gap in Venezuela sharpens its position as one of the main challenges for the national economy. The official dollar rate set by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) for this Wednesday was estimated at Bs.95.80, while the parallel rate, according to its latest quotation, stands at Bs.142.42. This makes the exchange rate differential reach 48.66%.
The recent increase in the exchange rate gap, which is now close to 50%, accentuates deep distortions for both merchants and consumers. Economist Asdrubal Oliveros has warned about this, noting on his X account the need to change the exchange regime. “Meanwhile, we continue in a ‘every man for himself’ situation, where everyone tries to protect themselves as best they can,” he emphasized.
This impact is tangible in daily life. While merchants are legally obliged to set prices in bolívares at the official rate, suppliers and wholesale markets use the parallel rate, which is increasingly higher and more distant. This situation generates what economist Jesús Palacios has called, in statements to EFE, “an imperfect pricing strategy” that often leads to losses.
At the same time, consumers—especially those earning salaries in bolívares—see their purchasing power erode rapidly, with little room for maneuver. Every change in exchange rates, in an economy that is de facto dollarized like Venezuela’s, directly influences the prices of goods and services.
Greater Officialist Control and Chevron’s Exit
On May 25, 2025, the Government reaffirmed its dominance in the regional and legislative elections, winning 23 of the 24 states in the country and obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The expansion of the officialist territorial control occurs in a context of low electoral participation (42.63% according to the CNE, although the opposition estimates it at less than 13%) and with a divided and mostly absent opposition.
The consolidation of Government power translates into greater control over institutions and growing international isolation. On Tuesday, May 27, the definitive cessation of Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela was finalized, representing a severe blow to the already weakened national oil industry. These structural factors contribute to the widening of the exchange rate gap.
Decline in Foreign Currency Pressures BCV to Reduce Market Interventions
The flow of foreign currency has dropped drastically in 2025, largely due to the decline in oil production following the exit of Chevron and other energy companies. Consequently, the BCV has reduced its market interventions, going from injecting nearly 5 billion dollars in 2024 to barely 634 million so far in 2025, according to expert estimates.
This shortage of dollars in the official market has caused the parallel market, which has no restrictions, to grow rapidly. According to estimates from the 2025 Venezuela Economic Outlook Report by UCAB, the supply of foreign currency in the formal market will fall by 40% this year, which could push the official exchange rate up to 160 bolívares per dollar and drive inflation above 200%.
Difficult Containment Threatens to Worsen the Crisis
In previous analyses, economist Asdrubal Oliveros has proposed two alternatives to reduce the gap. One is to raise the official rate, and the other is to carry out a massive sale of foreign currency. However, he warns that “there are no instant solutions” and that the containment policy implemented by the BCV, based on coverage bonds, is unsustainable without a greater injection of dollars.
The exchange rate gap, which has already reached peaks above 40% in recent months, threatens to surpass the 50% threshold following the most recent political and economic events the country has faced. If the trend is not reversed, inflation and the deepening uncertainty in prices are expected to worsen, making planning even more difficult for businesses and families.
This situation leaves the Venezuelan economy in a state of high vulnerability. Beyond being a technical indicator, the exchange rate gap positions itself as a thermometer of uncertainty and inequality in Venezuela in 2025. Greater availability of foreign currency would contribute to improvement, but this will not be possible without structural reforms.
